Bitcoin buyers showed unexpected restraint in early July as BTC/USD fell below $58,000, according to on-chain analysis. The price decline, which reached lows not seen since September 2024, failed to trigger the typical surge in purchasing activity associated with previous Bitcoin price floors.
Data from Bitcoin's HODL Waves metric, which tracks coin supply by dormancy period, revealed the unusual pattern. The supply of coins dormant between one and seven days—a key indicator of buying activity—stood at 1.97% on July 1 when the price fell below $58,000. The figure increased only marginally to 2.35% by July 5, suggesting limited investor accumulation.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo characterized the restrained response as an "anomaly" compared to historical behavior. "Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale," Woo wrote, noting that previous price lows typically triggered more pronounced buying spikes as investors rushed to accumulate.
Woo acknowledged potential limitations in the analysis, including the possibility that institutional investment vehicles may have influenced the on-chain data patterns. He suggested that the gradual buying pattern could indicate either slow, steady accumulation by numerous investors or concentrated purchases by a handful of buyers.
The debate continues over whether July marked a sustainable market bottom. Some analysts have raised concerns that the bear market structure remains intact, with warning signs including the formation of lower highs within a broader downtrend. Bitcoin would need to hold above certain technical levels to avoid triggering further declines, according to trader analysis.
Sentiment shifted in August, with US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recording $3.8 billion in net inflows over a three-week period, indicating renewed buyer interest.
