Bitcoin traded near $78,000 heading into the weekend after failing to sustain a breakout above $81,000 on August 28. The move left the cryptocurrency positioned between $77,000 support and $80,000 resistance, with traders watching both levels for signals about the next directional move.
The failed breakout came after Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks lifted expectations for a September rate hike to roughly 55% from about 40% before the speech. Warsh indicated the Fed still had work to do to bring inflation back toward its target, a hawkish signal that sent Bitcoin back below $80,000 by day's end and converted $80,000 from a level buyers had reclaimed into immediate resistance.
Key Price Levels
A sustained break below $77,000 would open the mid-$75,000s as the next downside target. Conversely, a reclaim of $80,000 would potentially put the August 28 high near $81,300 and the $82,000 to $83,000 zone back in range.
Options Expiry and Market Structure Changes
Roughly 81,700 Bitcoin options worth approximately $6.44 billion expired on the Deribit exchange Friday morning, removing a major positioning cluster that had anchored price near key strikes throughout the week. Call options outnumbered puts at a 0.83 ratio, with the largest call interest concentrated around $75,000 and $80,000—the same two levels now framing the weekend's trading range.
US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs posted nine straight days of net inflows through August 27, totaling roughly $3 billion. That inflow demand paused over the weekend, as ETF creation and redemption activity runs on the same weekday schedule as US equity trading.
The CME's shift to 24/7 trading in late May changed the market structure for weekends. Regulated institutional derivatives can now react to Saturday and Sunday moves, while spot ETFs remain offline until US equity markets reopen Monday.
Analyst Price Targets
Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 in July and set a recession-driven bear case near $53,000. The $82,000 to $83,000 zone notable on the upside now overlaps with the bank's full-year base case from eight weeks prior. Bernstein's longer-term forecast places Bitcoin at $150,000 by mid-2027, with a higher debasement-driven bull case reaching $500,000.
Scenarios
The bull case has Bitcoin reclaiming $80,000 and clearing the August 28 high, with the failed breakout reread as a shakeout inside an intact uptrend. The $82,000 to $83,000 zone becomes the next real test.
The bear case involves Bitcoin losing $77,000 with sustained acceptance below it, flushing out buyers who chased the earlier breakout above $80,000. In that scenario, $75,000 to $75,500 becomes the immediate target, with a further breakdown opening $72,000 to $73,000 as the market prices in a widening correction.
