Daily metrics compiled by analyst Darkfost indicate that about $707 billion of capital invested in Bitcoin is currently in loss, compared with $380 billion in profit. The figures represent the average capital held in loss or profit on Bitcoin spot positions.
Darkfost notes that the size of the loss overhang could extend the time needed for Bitcoin to return to profit, potentially requiring several months before a majority of capital moves back into positive territory. A sustained market expansion or bull run would likely be needed to shift the balance.
Recent market sentiment
On 2 November, Brazilian exchange Mercado Bitcoin halted transfers after a security incident that resulted in a $40 million loss. Withdrawals have since resumed, while deposits remained unaffected. The incident followed a recent Binance security breach and contributed to a pessimistic market outlook. Bitcoin’s price fell to $76,541 on the same day, with the $75 000 level identified as a key support zone for traders.
On‑chain activity trends
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that the 30‑day average of active Bitcoin addresses dropped to 629 000, a 43 % decline from the December 2024 peak of 1.10 million. By comparison, a similar decline occurred in 2018, when active addresses fell from 1.10 million to 547 000 over three months.
Despite the reduction in active addresses, the 30‑day average daily transfer volume decreased only 5.4 % from December 2024, moving from 865 000 to 819 000 BTC. This suggests that on‑chain transaction volume remains relatively stable despite lower address activity.
Summary
- Capital in loss ($707 billion) is roughly twice the amount in profit ($380 billion).
- Active Bitcoin addresses have contracted significantly, yet daily transfer volume remains near previous levels.
