Bitcoin climbed roughly 1% to around $78,724 early Monday, recovering modestly after last week’s market turbulence. The rise came as Brent crude fell about 3% to $110 a barrel and the dollar index slipped 0.5% to 101.45, easing two pressures that have weighed on risk assets.
Oil market and OPEC+ decision
OPEC+ on November 1 kept September production targets steady through December, with seven producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, declining to announce additional increases despite ongoing Middle East supply disruptions. The decision leaves oil prices elevated, which could sustain U.S. inflation pressures and keep Federal Reserve policy restrictive.
Potential impact on Bitcoin
Higher oil prices may prolong inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates. The Fed’s last rate hike in September and the decision to hold rates between 3.75% and 4% on October 28, with two policymakers voting for another increase, suggest a continued tight monetary stance.
U.S. gasoline prices rose 9.1% in September, contributing more than half of the month’s 0.6% rise in consumer prices. Annual inflation stood at 3.7% and core inflation at 2.6%.
Macro outlook
The next test for Bitcoin will be the release of October U.S. inflation data and the Energy Information Administration’s updated oil outlook on November 10. Softer fuel inflation could ease expectations of further Fed tightening, while renewed price pressure would add challenges to Bitcoin’s recovery.
