Bitcoin is holding near $84,000 even as a historic US bond selloff has pushed Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2007. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.22%, while the 30-year yield reached a 22-year high of 5.5185%.
The surge in yields raises the opportunity cost for Bitcoin by offering investors yields above 5% on US government debt. Yet crypto has absorbed the latest bond-market pressure relatively calmly so far, with Bitcoin remaining inside a roughly $83,000 to $85,000 range after retreating from this week's high near $87,000.
According to Bitwise analyst Camran Khosravi, Bitcoin has gained about 22% since August 19 even as the 10-year real yield climbed 50 basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield is on track for a seventh consecutive monthly increase, which would tie the longest such streak in data going back to 1970.
Treasury Market Strain and Economic Pressures
A $44 billion sale of seven-year Treasury notes cleared at 5.085% on Thursday, the highest auction yield since April 1993. The auction's bid-to-cover ratio slipped to 2.42 from 2.50 previously, indicating weakening demand.
Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, attributed the selloff to heavy government and corporate borrowing, strong economic activity, and reduced willingness or capacity among traditional Treasury buyers. The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points last week, while economic data suggest resilient employment and elevated input costs.
S&P Global's preliminary September composite purchasing managers' index jumped to 58.4 from 56.0, the strongest reading since July 2021, with companies increasing payrolls at the fastest pace in more than four years.
Traders Reduce Leverage Without Price Collapse
Bitcoin's adjustment to the macro shock has been more pronounced in derivatives positioning than in spot price. Combined Bitcoin open interest across major exchanges fell to about $10.3 billion on September 25 from $12 billion on September 22—a $1.7 billion decline representing a 14.3% contraction in leveraged exposure.
This contrasts with only about a 2.3% decline in Bitcoin's spot price over the same period, from roughly $86,000 to $84,000. The reduction was broad-based, with Gate.io recording a roughly $710 million decline and Binance a $680 million drop.
CoinGlass data show concentrations of liquidation levels near $85,300 to $85,700 above Bitcoin, with additional pockets around $83,000 and a larger cluster around $80,000 below current levels.
What Comes Next
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, noted that a 5% 10-year yield provides bond investors with a substantial cushion, with a 100-basis-point decline in yields potentially generating an 11.9% return. Nevertheless, Timmer said Bitcoin remained among the leading assets in his current multi-asset framework, alongside commodities.
The next major economic tests come from the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge on September 30, followed by the September employment report on October 2. Strong readings could give bond traders further reason to push long-term yields higher and subject Bitcoin's resilience to a more sustained test.
