Bitcoin's recent price gains are not being driven primarily by new capital entering the market, according to analysis from crypto research platform Glassnode.
Rolling 30-day cumulative inflows of new money to Bitcoin reached $4.9 billion on October 5, per Glassnode data. These inflows include purchases by corporate treasuries, stablecoin growth, and inflows to US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
However, Bitcoin's realized capitalization—which values each coin at the price it last moved onchain—grew by $12.8 billion over the same period, more than twice the new money inflows. Glassnode noted that existing holders accounted for three-fifths of this realized cap growth, with the remainder representing coins changing hands at higher prices among capital already in the market.
"New money therefore covers less than two fifths of that rise," Glassnode stated in its weekly newsletter. "Until those inflows pick up, the move depends on existing holders paying more."
Price Attempts Meet Resistance
Bitcoin has struggled to sustain gains above $87,000 since late September, with multiple rally attempts failing as buyers encountered resistance from selling pressure on exchange order books. Bitcoin was trading around $83,000 at the time of reporting, down approximately 1% month-to-date.
Short-Term Holder Profit-Taking Surges
Short-term holders—those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days—were responsible for heightened profit-taking activity. When Bitcoin achieved its first weekly close above $85,000 since January, approximately 86% of coins sent to exchanges came from short-term holders realizing profits. Glassnode noted this represented the highest share of any day in the past year, compared to a typical daily average under two-fifths.
Short-term holders remain net profitable overall, with an aggregate cost basis of around $78,250 as of October 7.
