Bitcoin has weakened significantly during US trading hours over the past two weeks, with prices falling 3.24% cumulatively between 9:30 a.m. and 4 p.m. New York time since September 21, according to an analysis of Binance BTC/USDT data. During the same period, Bitcoin gained 6.07% outside US market hours.
The divergence has widened pricing gaps between major exchanges. Bitcoin on Coinbase, which caters heavily to US investors, trades at a $64 discount to Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange. This gap, known as the Coinbase Premium Gap, recently fell to negative $64, indicating weaker demand on the US-focused venue.
Concentrated Losses Rather Than Steady Decline
The overall 3.24% loss masks an uneven pattern. Of 13 Wall Street trading sessions from September 21 through October 7, Bitcoin declined during eight of them. However, two sessions accounted for most losses: September 30 and October 2 saw declines of 1.86% and 2.65% respectively during US hours. Excluding these two dates, the remaining 11 sessions produced a compounded 1.28% gain.
The timing of weakness varies depending on the exact trading window measured. Starting the US session at 9 a.m. instead of 9:30 a.m. produces a 4.94% loss through 4 p.m., while a 10 a.m. start shows a 5.41% decline. After removing the two largest sell-off days, these alternative windows still show losses of 0.16% and 1.68% respectively.
ETF Flows Complicate the Picture
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $148.7 million in net outflows on September 30, aligning with the first major US-session decline. However, two days later on October 2, these funds attracted $189.9 million in inflows even as Bitcoin fell 2.65% during Wall Street hours. This divergence suggests that ETF investor behavior alone cannot fully explain the US-session weakness.
Larger outflows appeared on October 7, when the products recorded $484.9 million in net withdrawals. However, daily ETF totals do not reveal the precise timing of underlying Bitcoin sales or identify which investors drove prices lower.
Questions Remain on Seller Identity
Neither Binance nor Coinbase data reveals whether sellers during US hours are institutional investors, retail traders, market makers, or global participants active during American business hours. The consistent pricing weakness across both exchanges strengthens the signal that a genuine shift is occurring during US sessions, but the source remains unconfirmed.
Additionally, since 2025 regulatory changes allowed in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto ETFs, some fund withdrawals may involve transferring Bitcoin rather than an immediate cash sale, further obscuring the mechanics of selling pressure.
Analysts note that Bitcoin's net gains since September 21 have largely come outside the US session, reversing an earlier period when American trading hours contributed more strongly to price advances. Coming days will test whether this pattern persists or whether US-session weakness reverses.
