Chinese mining veteran and BTC.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer has abandoned his previous bearish forecast for 2026 after a strong market rebound undermined his expectations. Jiang now states that he is approximately 90% confident the crypto bear market has concluded, while pointing to Ethereum as a potential relative outperformer compared to Bitcoin.
The sentiment shift followed trades that reflected the breakdown of his initial bearish thesis. In late June, Jiang had projected that Bitcoin could decline toward $42,000 to $44,000 during the fourth quarter, relying partly on historical cycle timing and valuation metrics. However, that scenario weakened when cryptocurrency prices surged toward $79,500 on August 21, while Ether recovered into the mid-$2,000 range.
After previously selling ETH between $1,738 and $1,931, Jiang bought back near $2,100 upon deciding his bearish view was failing. He later sold half of his spot Ether position near $2,525, referencing a stop around $2,550 to manage his exposure as prices challenged his strategy.
Capital Deployment and Market Rebound Drivers
According to translations shared by Wu Blockchain, Jiang retains roughly 20% to 30% of his planned capital undeployed. He has considered another purchase if Bitcoin retreats into the $67,000 to $72,000 range, or alternatively intends to deploy the remaining funds by late October.
Jiang's revised outlook aligns with broader market strength, where Ethereum has shown relative outperformance. Bernstein analysts attributed Ether's relative strength to rising activity in stablecoins, tokenization, and real-world assets. Meanwhile, the wider market recovery drew backing from spot demand, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting about $1.6 billion through Thursday, including $606.3 million in Thursday inflows alone.
The initial breakout was also propelled by significant leverage unwinding, as more than $2.75 billion in short positions tied to the market leader were liquidated on August 19. While forced short-covering accelerated the move above $70,000, subsequent spot-market demand via exchange-traded funds provided additional support.
