Ethereum (ETH) traded down slightly by 0.23% to $2,495 as market participants monitored potential interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite these macroeconomic concerns, broader selling pressure has been mitigated by notable outflows of coins from cryptocurrency exchanges.
Exchange Outflows and ETF Demand
According to analyst Ali Martinez, traders withdrew approximately 116,000 ETH—valued at more than $300 million—from exchanges between September 6 and September 7. These withdrawals indicate that market participants remain hesitant to sell despite geopolitical tensions and potential monetary policy shifts leading up to the September 16 FOMC meeting.
Data from CoinGlass indicates that the total Ethereum exchange balance has declined to 11.92 million, marking the lowest reading since August 31. Concurrently, data from SoSoValue shows that Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded three consecutive weeks of inflows, totaling $130 million in September 2026.
Interest Rate Expectations and Inflation Data
Prediction markets and the CME FedWatch Tool indicate that approximately 49% to 59% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25-basis-point interest rate hike during its September meeting. These rising expectations precede the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with investors anticipating inflation to remain at 3.4%.
Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller previously stated that the FOMC decision will depend heavily on August inflation data. Higher-than-expected inflation could increase the likelihood of a rate hike, potentially exerting downward pressure on asset prices.
Technical Outlook
On the four-hour chart, Ethereum is trading within a rising triangle pattern. On-chain data highlights a significant transaction cluster around the $2,475 level, where 2.86 million ETH was bought or sold. While the positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line initially favored buyers, the MACD line has crossed below the signal line and is trending downward. Additionally, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reading of -0.15 indicates that short-term selling pressure currently outweighs buying momentum.
