Morgan Stanley released a new research forecast on SpaceX following the company's announcement of a $100 billion Starbase Louisiana expansion plan. Analyst Adam Jonas maintained an Overweight rating, saying the company remains "attractively valued."
Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX will reach $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2040. The forecast is based on significant growth in the company's launch business, with Morgan Stanley expecting SpaceX to operate 15 launch pads by 2040, including three additional pads planned by the end of 2027. If each pad completes two launches daily, SpaceX could conduct approximately 5,800 Starship launches annually by 2040.
Elon Musk responded to the revenue discussion, stating his estimate for $3.5 trillion in revenue is "roughly around 2033," placing his target approximately seven years ahead of Morgan Stanley's projection. Musk has previously indicated SpaceX could reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
The new Louisiana spaceport is expected to expand SpaceX's launch capacity for polar and sun-synchronous orbits. Additionally, Morgan Stanley noted the company is expanding into orbital computing, planning to increase computing capacity from over 2 GW by the end of 2026 to around 10 GW in 2027. Morgan Stanley estimates each additional 1 GW of orbital computing capacity could add approximately $27 per share to SpaceX's valuation.
SpaceX stock closed at $141.50, up approximately 0.5% over 24 hours. Morgan Stanley's current price target stands at $137 per share.
