Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied to trade near $80,244, gaining 14.3% over the past week and approaching a critical technical level that multiple research firms identify as a key test for the market.
CryptoQuant Declares Regime Shift
CryptoQuant's latest analysis indicates Bitcoin has entered a new bull market regime, with its Bull Score climbing from 30 to 80 within a single week—the most bullish reading since early October 2025, when BTC traded at $124,000. Eight of the firm's ten valuation metrics now register as bullish, and apparent spot demand is expanding at its fastest monthly pace since late December.
The firm attributes recent momentum to Washington policy signals and comments about Bitcoin purchases, amplified by back-to-back short liquidations and growing spot and futures demand occurring together for the first time since early October 2025.
Confirmation Hinges on Price Level
CryptoQuant emphasizes that this bull market declaration requires official confirmation: a daily close above Bitcoin's 365-day moving average, which sits near $83,000. The firm describes the current move as "a genuine regime shift, the initial phase of a new bull market… but it needs official confirmation."
Glassnode's independent analysis arrives at a similar conclusion. The firm maps overhead resistance between $81,000 and $86,000, identifying this band as where recovery demand meets its test. Glassnode's own confirmation marker is a settled close beyond $83,300 with sustained exchange-traded fund demand.
Mixed Holder Activity
While bullish signals mount, some long-term Bitcoin holders have begun selling into the rally. Long-term holder supply recently turned net negative at a monthly average of minus 21,000 BTC, reversing a peak of plus 286,000 BTC in early June. Realized profits are climbing alongside price, with short-term holders booking approximately $1 billion in profits over the past week.
CryptoQuant flagged additional signs of strain, reporting trader unrealized profits at 20.5%—the highest level since June 2025—and a record $614 million in whale realized profits on August 20. Sentiment data shows public participation has not kept pace with the advance, with weighted sentiment turning negative on Wednesday for the first time since the rally began.
Support Levels Below
Should Bitcoin weaken, Glassnode identifies the $70,000 short-term holder cost basis as the first weakness indicator, with a floor between $62,000 and $65,000 held by recent buyers who funded the current move.
